A report from the Australian Energy Market Operator (AEMO)
suggests that Queensland could be the first Australian State to
face a shortage of electricity as soon as 2012/13 in a high
economic growth scenario, but more likely 2013/14 in a mid-economic
growth scenario.
AEMO is predicted the demand for electricity in Queensland to grow
annually by 3.9% for the next 10 years.
Increased growth rates in Queensland are due to a projected
increases in demand in the Surat Basin area as a result of coal
seam gas developments, gas compressor loads, and coal mining
developments and their supporting infrastructure and
services.
Electricity shortages could hit other states a little later:
- New South Wales: 2016/17
- Victoria: 2015/16
- South Australia: 2015/16
- Queensland: 2013/14
It's unlikely that any state will physically see blackouts - but
with potential shortfalls on the cards, large users could see their
usage capped (as per their supply contracts). What's clear is
that decisive action is needed to ensure continual investment made
to bolster security of supply.